Week 08: Half the Season, gone already???

I hate every pick this week but one: GB +6. Here are the picks and a bit of commentary:

1	SF	v. DEN	-1	2.65
2	SEA	@ OAK	+2.5	2.50
3	DET	v. WAS	-2.5	2.35
4	MIA	@ CIN	+1.5	2.20
5	TEN	@ SD	+3.5	2.05
6	STL	v. CAR	-3	1.90
7	KC	v. BUF	-7.5	1.75
8	TB	@ ARI	+3	1.60
9	JAC	@ DAL	+6.5	1.45
10	GB	@ NYJ	+6	1.30
11	HOU	@ IND	+5.5	1.15
12	PIT	@ NO	0	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.90

1	SEA	@ OAK	+110	1.00
2	TB	@ ARI	+140	1.00
3	TEN	@ SD	+165	1.00
4	JAC	@ DAL	+230	1.00
5	KC	v. BUF	-330	1.00
6	NYJ	v. GB	-240	1.00
7	IND	v. HOU	-240	1.00
8	STL	v. CAR	-145	1.00
9	DET	v. WAS	-135	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	9.00

Here's what I think:

DEN bounces back this week. SF is terrible on the road, and London is waaaaay on the road.

SEA pick isn't bad, but OAK at home will keep it tight.

How is DET even a favorite over WAS in the first place? Is McNabb still playing?

Like the MIA pick.

This is the point in the season where SD realizes it has to win to make the playoffs, go 7-2 for the rest of the season, and Norv figures out a way to blow the wildcard. Something like 4th and 2 on the opp 38 yard line and he punts, even though he's behind by 4 with 4 min to go. You know - dumb. Long way of saying watch SD lay 50 on TEN this week.

BUF is switching back to a 4-3. That means a more confident defense to compliment an already scrappy offense (who is Steve Johnson anyway? which jerk in your fantasy league has him on their bench?). KC is a paper tiger - this year's CIN. BUF wins this outright. Hate this pick.

TB pick is ok.

JAC pick is ok.

Love the GB pick. Clay Matthews might have 4 sacks of Sanchez. I'm not just saying that because I hate the Jets and hope it happens.

IND should be giving 10 and it still wouldn't be enough. They'll stack 10 in the box with a single free safety to cover the entire receiving core (Andre Johnson = fantasy bust so far), Arian Foster will run for 3 yards in 45 attempts, and Peyton will throw for 825 yards with 6 TDs as the ultimate, "you had your one victory, now go fuck yourselves" game.

NO will get up for this game, and PIT just lost Aaron Smith, the anchor of their defensive front line. The wildcard is the NO secondary - Big Ben is pasting teams, it's strength against weakness. PIT looks good in this if the D holds sans Smith.

And we'll wrap with the lame and useless power rankings:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 1 - 0	64.38%
2	SEA		4 - 2 - 0
3	BAL		3 - 2 - 1
4	PIT		4 - 2 - 0
5	NYJ		5 - 1 - 0
6	NE	▲1	2 - 2 - 1
7	NYG	▼1	3 - 3 - 0
8	MIA		3 - 2 - 0
9	SF	▲1	3 - 4 - 0	51.12%
10	PHI	▲8	4 - 2 - 0
11	ATL	▼2	3 - 3 - 0
12	CLE	▲2	2 - 3 - 1
13	SD		2 - 5 - 0
14	MIN	▲5	3 - 2 - 0
15	CIN	▲1	2 - 4 - 0
16	STL	▼1	5 - 1 - 1
17	HOU	▼6	2 - 3 - 1
18	DAL	▼1	1 - 5 - 0
19	IND	▼7	3 - 2 - 1
20	TEN		5 - 2 - 0
21	DEN		2 - 4 - 0
22	CHI	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
23	WAS	▲3	4 - 1 - 2
24	DET	▲4	5 - 1 - 0
25	JAC	▼3	3 - 3 - 0	33.24%
26	BUF	▼2	2 - 4 - 0
27	GB	▲2	2 - 3 - 0
28	TB	▼1	1 - 3 - 1
29	NO	▼4	1 - 6 - 0
30	OAK		2 - 4 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 4 - 1

Week 07: Results

A good week.

1	NYG	@ DAL	+3	2.07	W	4.13
2	PIT	@ MIA	-3	1.97	L	0.00
3	SEA	v. ARI	-5.5	1.87	W	3.58
4	SF	@ CAR	-3	1.78	L	0.00
5	NE	@ SD	+3	1.68	W	2.97
6	STL	@ TB	+3	1.58	W	2.96
7	PHI	@ TEN	+3	1.48	L	0.00
8	WAS	@ CHI	+3	1.39	W	2.54
9	ATL	v. CIN	-3.5	1.29	W	2.46
10	GB	v. MIN	-3	1.19	W	2.45
11	CLE	@ NO	+13	1.10	W	2.09
12	BUF	@ BAL	+13	1.00	W	1.91
	Totals:		Bets:	18.40	Payout:	25.09
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				9	3	0
	Week Win Percent:
	75.00%
	Bet Win Percent:
	36.38%

1	NE	@ SD	+120	1.00	W	2.20
2	STL	@ TB	+130	1.00	L	0.00
3	WAS	@ CHI	+130	1.00	W	2.30
4	PHI	@ TEN	+140	1.00	L	0.00
5	NYG	@ DAL	+155	1.00	W	2.55
6	NO	v. CLE	-700	1.00	L	0.00
7	BAL	v. BUF	-700	1.00	W	1.14
8	SEA	v. ARI	-270	1.00	W	1.37
9	ATL	v. CIN	-180	1.00	W	1.56
10	PIT	@ MIA	-150	1.00	W	1.67
11	SF	@ CAR	-150	1.00	L	0.00
12	GB	v. MIN	-140	1.00	W	1.71
	Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	14.50
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	4	0
	Week Win Percent:
	66.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	20.83%

GRAND TOTAL:							30.24%			39.59
										30.40
										9.19

Week 07: Almost forgot...

1	NYG	@ DAL	+3	2.07
2	PIT	@ MIA	-3	1.97
3	SEA	v. ARI	-5.5	1.87
4	SF	@ CAR	-3	1.78
5	NE	@ SD	+3	1.68
6	STL	@ TB	+3	1.58
7	PHI	@ TEN	+3	1.48
8	WAS	@ CHI	+3	1.39
9	ATL	v. CIN	-3.5	1.29
10	GB	v. MIN	-3	1.19
11	CLE	@ NO	+13	1.10
12	BUF	@ BAL	+13	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	18.40

1	NE	@ SD	+120	1.00
2	STL	@ TB	+130	1.00
3	WAS	@ CHI	+130	1.00
4	PHI	@ TEN	+140	1.00
5	NYG	@ DAL	+155	1.00
6	NO	v. CLE	-700	1.00
7	BAL	v. BUF	-700	1.00
8	SEA	v. ARI	-270	1.00
9	ATL	v. CIN	-180	1.00
10	PIT	@ MIA	-150	1.00
11	SF	@ CAR	-150	1.00
12	GB	v. MIN	-140	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	12.00

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 1 - 0	62.92%
2	SEA		3 - 2 - 0
3	BAL	▲1	3 - 2 - 1
4	PIT	▲1	4 - 1 - 0
5	NYJ	▼2	4 - 1 - 0
6	NYG	▲2	3 - 3 - 0
7	NE	▼1	2 - 2 - 1
8	MIA	▲4	2 - 2 - 0
9	ATL	▼2	3 - 3 - 0	48.33%
10	SF	▲7	3 - 3 - 0
11	HOU	▼2	2 - 2 - 1
12	IND	▲2	3 - 2 - 0
13	SD	▼3	2 - 4 - 0
14	CLE	▼1	2 - 3 - 1
15	STL		4 - 1 - 1
16	CIN	▼5	2 - 3 - 0
17	DAL	▲1	1 - 4 - 0
18	PHI	▲1	4 - 2 - 0
19	MIN	▼3	3 - 2 - 0
20	TEN	▲5	4 - 2 - 0
21	DEN	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
22	JAC	▼2	3 - 2 - 0
23	CHI	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
24	BUF	▼3	1 - 4 - 0
25	NO	▲2	1 - 5 - 0	40.10%
26	WAS		3 - 1 - 2
27	TB	▼4	1 - 2 - 1
28	DET	▲1	4 - 1 - 0
29	GB	▼1	1 - 3 - 0
30	OAK		2 - 3 - 0
31	CAR		1 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 3 - 1

Week 06: Results

1	KC	@ HOU	+4.5	1.77	W	3.38
2	NYJ	@ DEN	-3	1.71	W	3.19
3	SEA	@ CHI	+6.5	1.64	W	3.14
4	ATL	@ PHI	+3	1.58	L	0.00
5	DAL	@ MIN	+1.5	1.51	L	0.00
6	NE	v. BAL	-3	1.45	P	1.45
7	TEN	@ JAC	-3	1.39	W	2.77
8	STL	v. SD	+8.5	1.32	W	2.52
9	DET	@ NYG	+10	1.26	W	2.40
10	CLE	@ PIT	+14	1.19	L	0.00
11	WAS	v. IND	+3	1.13	P	1.13
12	OAK	@ SF	+6.5	1.06	L	0.00
13	TB	v. NO	+4.5	1.00	L	0.00
	Totals:		Bets:	18.02	Payout:	19.99

1	ATL	@ PHI	+125	1.00	L	0.00
2	KC	@ HOU	+175	1.00	L	0.00
3	WAS	v. IND	+150	1.00	L	0.00
4	SEA	@ CHI	+245	1.00	W	3.45
5	STL	v. SD	+340	1.00	W	4.40
6	PIT	v. CLE	-800	1.00	W	1.13
7	NYG	v. DET	-500	1.00	W	1.20
8	SF	v. OAK	-250	1.00	W	1.40
9	NYJ	@ DEN	-170	1.00	W	1.59
10	NO	@ TB	-210	1.00	W	1.48
11	NE	v. BAL	-140	1.00	W	1.71
12	TEN	@ JAC	-140	1.00	W	1.71
	Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	18.07

Week 06: Power Rank Me

This still doesn't actually work predictively as I hoped it would, but... here they are until I figure it out.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 1 - 0	63.75%
2	SEA		2 - 2 - 0
3	NYJ		4 - 1 - 0
4	BAL		3 - 2 - 0
5	PIT		3 - 1 - 0
6	NE		2 - 2 - 0
7	ATL	▲4	3 - 2 - 0
8	NYG	▲2	3 - 2 - 0
9	HOU	▲6	2 - 2 - 1	49.17%
10	SD	▼1	2 - 3 - 0
11	CIN	▲1	2 - 2 - 0
12	MIA	▲1	2 - 1 - 0
13	CLE	▼5	2 - 2 - 1
14	IND		3 - 2 - 0
15	STL	▼8	3 - 1 - 1
16	MIN	▲5	2 - 2 - 0
17	SF		2 - 3 - 0
18	DAL		1 - 3 - 0
19	PHI		3 - 2 - 0
20	JAC		3 - 2 - 0
21	BUF	▲7	1 - 3 - 0
22	DEN	▲2	2 - 3 - 0
23	TB	▼7	1 - 1 - 1
24	CHI	▲3	2 - 2 - 0
25	TEN	▲1	3 - 2 - 0	41.15%
26	WAS	▼3	3 - 1 - 1
27	NO	▼2	0 - 5 - 0
28	GB	▼6	1 - 2 - 0
29	DET	▲3	4 - 1 - 0
30	OAK	▼1	2 - 3 - 0
31	CAR	▼1	1 - 2 - 0
32	ARI	▼1	0 - 3 - 1

Week 06: Reporting in Units

To make things easier, rather than dollar amounts, everything will be in "units" from now on. 1 unit is whatever your minimum is.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Units	W/L	Payout
KC	@ HOU	+4.5	1.77
NYJ	@ DEN	-3	1.71
SEA	@ CHI	+6.5	1.64
ATL	@ PHI	+3	1.58
DAL	@ MIN	+1.5	1.51
NE	v. BAL	-3	1.45
TEN	@ JAC	-3	1.39
STL	v. SD	+8.5	1.32
DET	@ NYG	+10	1.26
CLE	@ PIT	+14	1.19
WAS	v. IND	+3	1.13
OAK	@ SF	+6.5	1.06
TB	v. NO	+4.5	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	18.02	Payout:	0.00

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
ATL	@ PHI	+125	1.00
KC	@ HOU	+175	1.00
WAS	v. IND	+150	1.00
SEA	@ CHI	+245	1.00
STL	v. SD	+340	1.00
PIT	v. CLE	-800	1.00
NYG	v. DET	-500	1.00
SF	v. OAK	-250	1.00
NYJ	@ DEN	-170	1.00
NO	@ TB	-210	1.00
NE	v. BAL	-140	1.00
TEN	@ JAC	-140	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	0.00

Week 05: Results

	Pick	Vs	Spd	Units	W/L	Payout
1	PHI	@ SF	+3.5	1.47	W	2.69
2	JAC	@ BUF	-1	1.43	W	2.74
3	KC	@ IND	+8.5	1.40	L	0.00
4	NYJ	v. MIN	-4	1.36	W	2.60
5	GB	@ WAS	-2.5	1.32	L	0.00
6	NYG	@ HOU	+3	1.29	W	2.41
7	TB	@ CIN	+6.5	1.25	W	2.39
8	STL	@ DET	+3	1.22	L	0.00
9	TEN	@ DAL	+6.5	1.18	W	2.25
10	SD	@ OAK	-6.5	1.14	L	0.00
11	ATL	@ CLE	-3	1.11	W	2.22
12	NO	@ ARI	-7	1.07	L	0.00
13	DEN	@ BAL	+7	1.04	L	0.00
14	CHI	@ CAR	-3	1.00	W	2.05
	Totals:		Bets:	17.28	Payout:	19.35
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	6	0
	Week Win Percent:
	57.14%
	Bet Win Percent:
	11.95%

	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NYG	@ HOU	+130	1.00	W	2.30
2	STL	@ DET	+140	1.00	L	0.00
3	PHI	@ SF	+155	1.00	W	2.55
4	TB	@ CIN	+245	1.00	W	3.45
5	TEN	@ DAL	+245	1.00	W	3.45
6	KC	@ IND	+320	1.00	L	0.00
7	NO	@ ARI	-290	1.00	L	0.00
8	SD	@ OAK	-270	1.00	L	0.00
9	BAL	v. DEN	-320	1.00	W	1.31
10	NYJ	v. MIN	-190	1.00	W	1.53
11	ATL	@ CLE	-150	1.00	W	1.67
12	CHI	@ CAR	-140	1.00	W	1.71
13	GB	@ WAS	-135	1.00	L	0.00
	Totals:		Bets:	13.00	Payout:	17.97
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	5	0
	Week Win Percent:
	61.54%
	Bet Win Percent:
	38.23%

Week 05: Randy Moss Means Nothing

Well, not literally. But it didn't shake the line or the expectations.

PHI	@ SF	+3.5	9%
JAC	@ BUF	-1	8%
KC	@ IND	+8.5	8%
NYJ	v. MIN	-4	8%
GB	@ WAS	-2.5	8%
NYG	@ HOU	+3	7%
TB	@ CIN	+6.5	7%
STL	@ DET	+3	7%
TEN	@ DAL	+6.5	7%
SD	@ OAK	-6.5	7%
ATL	@ CLE	-3	6%
NO	@ ARI	-7	6%
DEN	@ BAL	+7	6%
CHI	@ CAR	-3	6%

Money:

NYG	@ HOU	+130	8%
STL	@ DET	+140	8%
PHI	@ SF	+155	8%
TB	@ CIN	+245	8%
TEN	@ DAL	+245	8%
KC	@ IND	+320	8%
NO	@ ARI	-290	8%
SD	@ OAK	-270	8%
BAL	v. DEN	-320	8%
NYJ	v. MIN	-190	8%
ATL	@ CLE	-150	8%
CHI	@ CAR	-140	8%
GB	@ WAS	-135	8%

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 0 - 0	73.96%
2	SEA		2 - 1 - 0
3	NYJ	▲2	3 - 1 - 0
4	BAL	▼1	2 - 2 - 0
5	PIT	▼1	3 - 0 - 0
6	NE	▲2	1 - 2 - 0
7	STL		3 - 0 - 1
8	CLE	▼2	2 - 1 - 1
9	SD	▲4	2 - 2 - 0	48.96%
10	NYG	▲5	2 - 2 - 0
11	ATL	▼1	2 - 2 - 0
12	CIN	▼3	2 - 2 - 0
13	MIA	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
14	IND	▼2	2 - 2 - 0
15	HOU	▲5	2 - 1 - 1
16	TB	▼2	0 - 1 - 1
17	SF	▲9	2 - 2 - 0
18	DAL		1 - 2 - 0
19	PHI	▲4	2 - 2 - 0
20	JAC	▲10	2 - 2 - 0
21	MIN		2 - 1 - 0
22	GB		1 - 2 - 0
23	WAS	▲2	2 - 1 - 1
24	DEN	▼5	2 - 2 - 0
25	NO	▼9	0 - 4 - 0	30.21%
26	TEN	▼2	2 - 2 - 0
27	CHI	▼10	1 - 2 - 0
28	BUF	▲4	1 - 3 - 0
29	OAK		1 - 3 - 0
30	CAR	▲1	1 - 2 - 0
31	ARI	▼3	0 - 3 - 1
32	DET	▼5	3 - 1 - 0