Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Week 10 - Dreaming of Upsets

The spreads are very interesting this week... potentials for moneyline, straight-wagers, teasers, and parlays. Here's what I'm seeing:

1. Den (-3.5) @ WAS, +160/-180: Whhaa? Denver loses to a very good PIT and suddenly is only 3.5 favorites against the imploding Redskins? All the way in on this one. Denver has no injury problems, no drama, and no reason not to win this game comfortably. This game could provoke my first parlay of the year, and I'll definitely find a teaser to use.

Recommendation: Den -180, Den -3.5, Den +2.5 (Teaser)

2. CIN (+7) @ PIT, +260/-320: OK, so PIT looked really good Monday Night, and they are on a roll. I can't help but notice they live on turnovers, though, and rely offensively on the passing game. CIN is quietly playing excellent D, and they've drafted #1 corners twice in the past 5 years who are both starting and playing lights-out. Carson looks great, Ochocinco is back to old form, and they suddenly have a running game with C. Benson... My point? Huuuuge opportunity for upset here, if you have the stones. Cincy is getting a touchdown, and on the moneyline, you get more than double your money. Plus, make this a teaser and suddenly you're at CIN +13!

Recommendation: CIN +260, CIN +7, CIN +13 (Teaser)

3. NO (-13.5) @ STL: I don't remember exactly, but I think in 2007 NE was getting spreads over 20. This is where this game should be. You can bet this straight, or even better - tie it in with a teaser. You think STL stays within 7.5 points? Me either.

Recommendation: NO - 7.5 (Teaser)

4. NE (+3) @ IND, +125/-145: You NEVER see NE as the 'dog, it's almost freaky. I know the Colts are 8-0, but I don't see them beating tough opponents, and their injuries keep coming. Bob Sanders is out (as usual), and both corners are gone. Pretty much all that's left is to double-up Freeney and it could be bombs away for Brady. The Pats lost their two games early on when Brady seemed to have mechanic issues and timing problems, but the last 3 weeks he's looked back to form. The deep ball has been there (see one-handed grab by Moss last week), Welker's healthy and they're using Watson as the 3rd option effectively. Defensively, the Pats looked vulnerable when Mayo was out, but he's back The secondary has been questionable because of the youth - but they've improved and the highly touted rookies have been playing their way into significant roles. Basically I see a great game, but I think New England has the edge here. Throw them in a teaser and you've got a 9 point cushion.

Recommendation: NE +125, NE +3, NE +9 (Teaser)

5. Bal (-10.5) @ CLE: This is a classic teaser game for me. Nobody doubts Baltimore is gonna win this game, but a 10.5 point spread is kinda big and feels risky. Knock 6 points off and you're down to -4.5, and feel peachy about it.

Recommendation: Bal -4.5 (Teaser)

No comments: