So I made the quick switch per Mad Capper's suggestion - use the stats and compare apples to apples. After a week of work, it's official: I suck. Or, at least, SSPAM (Stupid Super Pick Averaging Machine).
Using the stats that correct for the average, the long term results were SIGNIFICANTLY worse.
The ole Box is looking better and better... we'll see how we do this week.
1 comment:
You are telling me that factoring in volatility WORSENS the success rate of picks? The inverse conclusion would be that picking on MORE volatile teams brings greater success....
this can't be right.
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